Wednesday, December 11, 2019
I wouldnt have seen it if I hadnt believed it No one is above self-delusion
I wouldnt have seen it if I hadnt believed it No one is above self-delusionI wouldnt have seen it if I hadnt believed it No one is above self-delusionNo one is above self-delusion.This thought kept buzzing in my head as I was doing research related to a book Im currently writing. Brilliant scientists- on a regular basis- fool themselves.We tend to think that were above cognitive biases and subjective distortion. The Im not biased bias is a real thing. Studies show that people regularly rate themselves as less biased than the average American. These studies remind me of how President Dwight Eisenhower was astonished to learn that half the U.S. population had below-average intelligence.But scientists should be in a different category. After all, theyre trained in the scientific method designed to counter human biases and help separate fact from fiction. Yet, scientists arent immune from seeing what they want to see- even when its not there.Consider unterstellung examples, all of which are about roter planet.In the late 1800s, the Italian astronomer Giovanni Schiaparelli spotted what he called canali on the Martian surface. These canali- not to be confused with the delicious Sicilian dessert cannoli- were long, canal-like structures.Although Schiaparelli didnt attribute these canals to intelligent life, the astronomer Percival Lowell later took that leap. Lowell wrote that the canals were built by an ancient intelligent civilization in order to access water from Marss polar ice caps. Lowells speculations fueled the publics already voracious appetite for alien stories, providing fodder for numerous media stories and science-fiction books like Ray Bradburys Martian Chronicles.But the canals turned out to be optical illusions.Mars also led Nikola Tesla, the inventor of the AC motor, astray. Tesla reported detecting signals from Mars consisting of a regular repetition of numbers, much like how Jodie Fosters character in Contact detected prime numbers from Vega. Tesla interpreted these numbers as extraordinary experimental evidence of intelligent life on Mars.More recently, scientists at Stanford University picked up a signal from the Mars Polar Lander after the spacecraft was thought to have crashed on the planets surface. To verify the signals origins, they told the spacecraft to send smoke signals by turning its radio on and off in a distinctive sequence. The spacecraft appeared to oblige. The scientists received the smoke signal and announced, much like Dr. Frankenstein, that the spacecraft was alive.But it was not. The signal turned out to be a fluke.The Stanford scientists were experiencing a phenomenon known as I wouldnt have seen it if I hadnt believed it. They wanted the Mars Polar Lander to be alive so badly they saw what they wanted to see.None of these scientists were intentionally trying to mislead the public. Their conclusions were based on their interpretation of seemingly objective data. So how did these brilliant people see somet hing when there was nothing?We tend to assume theres a negative relationship between intelligence and cognitive bias. In other words, we believe that the more intelligent you are- the more advanced your operating system is- the less likely you are to fall victim to the type of fallacies that affect the rest of the public.But the opposite is true. As Tali Sharot explains in The Influential Mind summarizing the relevant research, the greater your cognitive capacity, the greater your ability to rationalize and interpret information at will, and to creatively twist data to fit your opinions.So if you think youre immune to fooling yourself, think again. No one comes equipped with a critical-thinking integrierte schaltung that diminishes the human tendency to let personal beliefs distort the facts. Regardless of your IQ or intellectual capabilities, physicist Richard Feynmans adage holds true The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool.Oza n Varol is a rocket scientist turned law professor and bestselling author.Click hereto download a free copy of his e-book, The Contrarian Handbook 8 Principles for Innovating Your Thinking. Along with your free e-book, youll get the Weekly Contrarian - a newsletter that challenges conventional wisdom and changes the way we look at the world (plus access to exclusive content for subscribers only).This article first appeared on OzanVarol.com
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